A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.     

On the variance of recurrent traffic flow for statistical traffic assignment

This paper generalizes and extends classical traffic assignment models to characterize the statistical features of Origin-Destination (O-D) demands, link/path flow and link/path costs, all of which vary from day to day. The generalized statistical traffic assignment (GESTA) model has a clear multi-level variance structure. Flow variance is analytically decomposed into three sources, O-D demands, route choices and measurement errors. Consequently, optimal decisions on roadway design, maintenance, operations and planning can be made using estimated probability distributions of link/path flow and system performance. The statistical equilibrium in GESTA is mathematically defined. Its multi-level statistical structure well fits large-scale data mining techniques. The embedded route choice model is consistent with the settings of O-D demands considering link costs that vary from day to day. We propose a Method of Successive Averages (MSA) based solution algorithm to solve for GESTA. Its convergence and computational complexity are analyzed. Three example networks including a large-scale network are solved to provide insights for decision making and to demonstrate computational efficiency.     

海流作用下沉管—双驳船沉放系统沉放过程的阻力特性分析

文章通过CFD方法对海流作用下沉管管节与双驳船组成的沉放系统在不同沉放水深时的阻力进行分析,采用RANS方程和SST k-ε湍流模型,利用试验结果验证所用模型和方法的正确性。结合沉放过程三个典型工况,分析90°来流时的流场变化对阻力特性变化产生的影响。结果表明数值结果与试验结果差异较小,驳船和沉管之间的相对位置、沉管沉放深度对流阻力大小影响较大。     

基于时间约束的铁路空车调配系统可靠性分析

为弥补现有铁路空车调配系统缺乏空车调配可靠性研究的缺陷,在传统空车调配优化模型的基础上,本文提出了一种新的基于时间约束的空车调配可靠性分析方法。通过深入分析铁路空车调配过程,建立效益最大化目标函数,生成约束条件,以规定时间内的实际到达空车数与需求空车数之比计算出各需求站的空车调配可靠性,再利用各需求站可靠性均值求解空车调配系统的可靠性。最后,使用LINGO软件进行算例分析,论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

盲源分离技术在水声信号中的应用研究

通过研究α稳定分布,提出海洋噪声、舰船辐射噪声等符合低阶α稳定分布,在进行对称α稳定分布且独立的随机源信号进行盲分离处理时,若仍然采用高斯分布将不收敛。本文设计了分数低阶矩阵盲源分离算法,最后通过实验对比本文所设计算法和时延分离算法。实验结果表明:本文所设计的算法对于α稳定分布且有独立的随机信号,具有较好的收敛性,能够有效实现盲源信号分离。通过从复杂的海洋噪声中仍能较好地提取出船舱辐射噪声的实验,说明即使信噪比发生变化,源信号分离后相似系数较分离前仍然有稳定地提高。     

盾构隧道壁后注浆研究现状及发展趋势

壁后注浆是盾构隧道施工过程中必不可少的环节。针对盾构隧道壁后注浆的特点,分析壁后注浆研究拟解决的主要问题,同时对壁后注浆研究论文的分布特征、研究机构、科研群体及基金资助等情况进行分析,综述盾构隧道壁后注浆研究现状,探讨其未来研究的发展方向。结果表明:1)传统岩土工程研究对盾构隧道壁后注浆研究具有较大的参考价值;2)在论文质量与数量方面,该领域研究成果依然不多,且高等院校的优势明显;3)国家基金的资助对盾构壁后注浆研究的促进作用巨大;4)壁后注浆研究现状中,对浆液材料研究较多,注浆参数控制和浆液扩散机制依然停留在理论阶段,而对注浆效果评估的研究依旧不多。     

南非规范与中国规范中汽车荷载对比研究

为给我国涉外桥梁工程项目设计提供参考,对我国与南非桥梁设计规范中汽车荷载效应进行对比研究。采用铰接板梁法和刚接梁法,计算常用跨径的单片简支梁在南非与中国规范汽车活载作用下的横向分布系数。在此基础上,通过对简支梁及整体式连续梁的纵向影响线加载,分析2种规范中考虑汽车活载纵、横向分布后的差异。对比发现,对于常用中小跨径的简支、连续梁,南非规范汽车活载效应均高出中国规范30%以上;对于简支T梁跨中截面及连续梁支点截面,南非规范汽车活载效应高出中国规范35%~80%。即便考虑到两国规范中汽车冲击效应计入方式的不同,南非规范汽车活载也大于中国规范规定值。     

陕西省高速公路轴载特性区域划分

路面结构设计中一般是结合实测轴载数据计算累计当量轴次,但是新建和改建路面设计中实测轴载数据的调查往往难以实现,导致预测交通量无法准确表征实际交通状况。针对此问题,通过对陕西省18条高速路段的车流量数据和6条典型高速路段的实测轴载数据进行比对,分析其车型分布规律、轴型分布规律以及轴载分布规律的区域特征,为利用轴载特性相似区域的已知轴载调查数据预测交通量提供理论依据。研究结果表明:西安周边地区小客车占比明显高于其他类型车辆占比,通往外省地区拖挂车占比与小客车占比接近;西安周边地区以轻型拖挂车为主,通往外省地区以重型拖挂车为主;2个区域的超载比例差异明显,通往外省地区高速路段的超载比例多数是西安周边地区的2倍。     

停车让行交叉口机动车接受间隙和拒绝间隙分布特征

为了给出停车让行交叉口机动车的临界间隙值,调查了上海市不同区域(中心区、郊区等)和不同类型(十字形、T形)的14个交叉口,提取各交叉口不同流向(主路左转、支路直行、支路左转)交通流之间的穿越行为特征数据.基于Raff方法和极大似然估计法,对接受间隙和拒绝间隙数据进行统计分析,从而获得了不同类型交叉口不同流向的临界间隙值,将实测值与HCM2010中的推荐值进行比较.统计分析结果表明:T形交叉口和十字形交叉口的接受间隙和拒绝间隙明显不同,其中342型交叉口各流向的接受间隙和拒绝间隙值明显大于322型交叉口各流向的接受间隙和拒绝间隙值;支路左转车流的实测值大于HCM2010的推荐值,而其他流向的实测值均小于HCM2010推荐值;不同区域的交叉口各流向临界间隙值不同,越靠近外环,机动车临界间隙越大.     

某款纯电动客车系统匹配和方案设计

结合某款纯电动客车的研发与应用,介绍纯电动系统的匹配设计和整车CAN网络架构,并提出合理的纯电动系统高压配电管理方案。